Brewing Industry Predictions for 2026

2026 predictions, said with love and based on 30,000+ road miles and 100+ brewery visits in 2025

The Super Bowl, FIFA, Soccer, and general sporting-event energy will ripple through a lot of U.S. cities. A handful of breweries will make real money off it. Most will realize it happened two weeks later, like “huh… we were busy.” Too many places still don’t have a plan to catch that traffic, package an offer, or turn one-time visitors into regulars.

The big get bigger. The multi-location groups keep expanding: more taprooms, more states, more “we’re basically a beverage real estate company now.” Independents who still believe “our beer will speak for itself” are about to learn that beer is not a marketing strategy. (It’s a delicious product. Not a plan.)

Breweries finally start admitting the obvious: people drink less when it’s cold, wet, and stacked with holidays. If your model assumes steady year-round taproom volume, winter is going to keep showing up like an uninvited houseguest who eats your snacks and stays for three months. The winners build seasonal programming and smart offers that match human behavior, not wishful thinking.

Smart breweries will program their spaces like they mean it: trivia that doesn’t suck, clubs, makers nights, food collabs, watch parties, community partnerships — actual reasons to show up Monday–Wednesday. The tired and non-creative ones will keep the “Closed Mon–Wed” sign up and act surprised when weekends can’t carry payroll.

And the ugly one: 7–10 BBL breweries will close at a pace that’s no longer just “industry people whispering.” The public starts noticing by Q4 2026. More “wait, they closed?” posts — and it still won’t change consumer behavior. People will grieve for 12 seconds, then order a hazy somewhere else.

Most of these breweries will try the same last-ditch ladder on the way down: “maybe we can contract brew and shut the taproom.” Some will pull it off, but many won’t — because there are basically no buyers for 7–10 BBL operations right now. Not in the “someone might want the brand” sense, not in the “someone will assume the lease and equipment” sense. Mostly it’s just owners and staff forced into pivots they didn’t plan for.

One bright spot: the OG market, San Diego, stays the most energized beer scene in the country. The weather helps, sure — but so does 30+ years of brewery history. They’ve lived through cycles already. There’s less panic, less neck-biting, and more “cool, what’s the move?” energy. You'll find me in SD a lot in 2026.